15 Minutes

Silicon Valley Entrepreneur, Author and Stanford Professor Steve Blank has published a phone book of sorts for the Pentagon - at least when it comes to the trickier issue of understanding how the Pentagon buys things – which is a crucial component of future U.S. national security. Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly talks to Blank about his new ‘phone book’ for businesses trying to sell into the DoW.

As tensions rise globally, so does the risk of conflict. Poland’s Prime Minister has recently warned that Poland is closer to war than at any time since WWII.  And while Russia’s war against Ukraine escalates with no clear path to peace in sight, other incidents such cyberattacks and drone incursions across NATO airspace are fueling growing uncertainty among European leaders. At the same time, U.S.–China competition is intensifying across economic, military, and technological fronts with some arguing that the risk of military conflict between Washington and Beijing is rising.  But some experts argue the U.S. is already engaged in a “Gray War” with Beijing - without realizing it. In this episode of The State Secrets Podcast, guest host Brad Christian speaks with former CIA officers Dave Pitts and Chip Usher, authors of a recent Cipher Brief article called China’s Gray War on America. Together, they unpack Beijing’s doctrine of “Unrestricted Warfare,” explore the six strategic fronts of China’s current strategy

Former CIA Director General David Petraeus (Ret.) doesn’t mince words: Russia’s 19-drone incursion into Polish airspace was no accident — it was a deliberate test of NATO’s resolve. Joining The State Secrets Podcast from Kyiv, Ukraine, General Petraeus lays out Ukraine’s   breathtaking innovation in drone warfare, noting that units now fly thousands of missions daily, with entire regiments springing up to meet demand. But the Russians are innovating, too.  So, what does that mean for the future of this war and those to come?

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth visited a warship off the coast of Puerto Rico this week, telling Marines and sailors that they are on the “front lines” of a critical counter-narcotics mission. Exactly what that mission is – remains murky but the statement itself was a clue to the administration’s intent. The U.S. has been beefing up military assets in the region and last week, a U.S. military attack on a boat in international waters raised concerns that rippled through Venezuela and the U.S. Congress. In this edition of The State Secrets Podcast, The Cipher Brief is talking with Renee Novakoff, former Deputy Director of Intelligence for Sensitive Activities and Special Programs at the Office of the Secretary of Defense about what we know and what we still don’t - about the Pentagon’s mission off the coast of Venezuela

In this wide-ranging conversation, former CIA senior leader Sheetal Patel warns about the vulnerabilities the U.S. faces from evolving drone threats, drawing lessons from Ukraine’s successful deep-strike operations against Russia. She highlights the lack of clear authorities, resources, and interagency coordination for defending against small drone swarms in America. Patel also stresses the crucial role of the private sector in rapidly advancing both drone and counter-drone technologies and underscores the growing counterintelligence risks U.S. companies face from foreign adversaries like China. The discussion extends to U.S.–India relations, where recent tariffs threaten to undermine years of strategic progress against Chinese influence.

In a recent opinion piece published in The Cipher Brief, former senior CIA Executive Mark Kelton suggests that the country’s leading intelligence organization has a trust problem both with policy makers and the public. One component of that problem that Kelton argues poses an existential threat to the Agency, is leakers.  Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly talks with Kelton – who oversaw the CIA’s response to the devastating intelligence leaks made by Edward Snowden – about why he believes the future effectiveness of the Agency depends on restoring trust.

Taiwan has launched its largest annual military exercise ever - amid growing concern that China is on the cusp of launching a military invasion. Many national security experts see a Chinese invasion as inevitable. A recent piece published at the cipher brief.com focuses on what Washington will do when it does happen. But first, it’s the Intelligence Community that is on the front lines - charged with gathering as much information as possible about Xi Jinping’s intent.  This week, State Secrets is talking with Susan Miller, who retired just a few months ago from CIA, where she served as the Assistant Director for the Agency’s China Mission Center.  The Center was established in October of 2021, to better address the national security challenges posed by the People’s Republic of China.

Writing a book was something former senior CIA Officer Rob Dannenberg never thought he’d do, but as he started reflecting on the ways he and his former colleagues would celebrate the successful recruitment of a new agent or the end of an operation that he couldn’t talk about, he started thinking about the cocktails he and his colleagues would order to mark the occasion.  Dannenberg recruited former colleague Joseph Mullin, CSW to help him compile not only the best recipes for the cocktails that defined their careers, but also for the stories that make them all the tastier.  

Rare Earth minerals might not be at the top of your panic list today but when it comes to U.S. national security, it’s an issue that has the potential to have the greatest impact on both our way of life and our future security.  It was on the agenda at the recent G7 meeting where world leaders agreed to prioritize a joint strategy to protect critical mineral supply chains.  But is it too little, too late? Tech executive and investor John Watters saw the signs of potential catastrophe years ago and is hitting the panic button with lawmakers and business leaders about just what’s at stake. 

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainians have used every resource available to fight back. From aid packages and weapons systems acquired from western allies to mobilizing every sector of society to bring innovation to the fight, Ukraine has stayed alive largely because of its adaptations of technology and its ingenuity on the battlefield. As part of a special delegation that visited Kyiv last month – led by former CIA Director General David Petraeus, The Cipher Brief met senior Chief Warrant Officer Joey Gagnard, who retired from the U.S. Special Operations Community earlier this year.  As part of that delegation, Gagnard’s unique take on where Ukraine is today when it comes to its use and development of war technologies like unmanned systems – provided some ground truth about where it may be headed.

Beijing has long said that it aims to be the world’s technology leader but the rate at which it is building data centers – and how it’s using them - is raising alarms in national security circles. State Secrets Podcast host Suzanne Kelly is talking with SCSP Senior Director of Intelligence Chip Usher, SCSP Director of Intelligence Libby Lange and Principal Intelligence Advisor at Strider Technologies, Chris Gregg about what a major new report tells us about just how quickly and effectively China is using AI and why that should concern you.

CIA veteran Sheetal Patel helped stand up and then lead the spy agency’s Transnational and Technology Mission Center in 2022, at a time when there was no longer any denying that more outreach to the private sector and a better grasp of the technologies that were available had to become more of a focus if the Agency was to maintain its strategic advantage.  Patel retired earlier this year after a 25-year career at the Agency and State Secrets Podcast host Suzanne Kelly caught up with her to find out how the Agency’s technology mission has evolved.

Vice Admiral Frank Whitworth sits at the helm of the Intelligence Agency that is helping war fighters and Intelligence analysts better understand the world and what’s beyond it.  The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) works intensely with the private sector to bring the most critical technological advances to the mission – not just here on Earth, but in Space as well.  Join us for this State Secretsconversation with Cipher Brief Honoree VADM Frank Whitworth on why getting the technology right – is so important to the broader national security mission.

Despite efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to warm U.S. relations with Moscow amid negotiations for Russia to end its war in Ukraine, Russian sabotage operations, active measures and Gray Zone activities are continuing around the world. Moscow has mastered the art of engaging in operations that push right up to the edge of war, without really crossing that that line, or have they?  The Cipher Brief talks with former Senior Member of the British Foreign Office Nick Fishwick and former senior CIA Executive Dave Pitts – who spent the bulk of his time at the Agency working in clandestine operations – about this new reality – that what we are seeing is really “war by a new name”.

When Walter Parkes co-wrote the movie War Games in 1983, he had no idea what he had launched.  The movie about a teen hacker played by Matthew Broderick examined what might happen if someone breached the security systems around U.S. nuclear weapons.  As it turned out, then-President Ronald Reagan saw the movie and asked the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the time whether it was possible.  After an investigation, the answer came back, “Sir, it’s actually worse than you think.” Eighteen months later, the president signed a directive that would lead to an overhaul of cybersecurity in the U.S. Government.  As The Cipher Brief honors Parkes with this year’s Impact Through Storytelling Award at The Cipher Brief HONORS Dinner, we sat down with him to talk about the very real power of storytelling.

In this conversation, former Senior CIA Execuvite Chip Usher discusses the recent advancements made by the Chinese AI lab DeepSeq, particularly its new AI models that rival those of American companies like OpenAI. Usher, now the Senior Director for Intelligence at the Special Competitive Studies Project, explains the significance of these developments in the context of US-China competition in technology and innovation, emphasizing the need for the US intelligence community to enhance its focus on techno-economic intelligence to avoid being caught off guard by such breakthroughs. Usher also highlights the implications of DeepSeq's model for cybersecurity and the potential risks posed by hostile actors gaining access to advanced AI capabilities.  

In this conversation, Mike Vigil discusses the recent designation of Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations by the U.S. government, a move he says is largely symbolic with little real impact on the cartels' operations. He highlights the complexities of U.S.-Mexico relations, the ongoing fentanyl crisis, and the risks of military escalation. Vigil also offers advice for U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on addressing drug trafficking in Central America, stressing the importance of creating alliances and addressing the broader issues of drug production and trafficking.

Few people have the perspective that Lt. Gen Mike Groen (ret.) has when it comes to Artificial Intelligence and the impact it has and will have in the national security space.  Before retiring from the military, Lt. General Groen served as Director of the Pentagon’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center.  Today, he’s ringing the alarm about AI.  The military is already adapting AI, so how does he think we need to be understanding it today?

Michael Casey is Director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, the part of the Director of National Intelligence that leads and supports the counterintelligence and security activities of the U.S. Government. NCSC produces the National Counterintelligence Strategy of the United States and includes the National Insider Threat Task Force. NCSC also plays a critical role in conducting outreach to the private sector on foreign intelligence threats: how to recognize them and how to mitigate them. I spoke with him recently from NCSC headquarters in McLean, Virginia about the risks that spies are posing to their enterprises and to future U.S. national security.

The Cipher Brief has been honored to support a number of non-profit organizations over the years that have made giving back their mission – especially in the national security world. In this episode of State Secrets, we’re welcoming David Kramer, a self-described ‘regular guy who wanted to give back’ and Jeremy Morton, a former special operations operator who has done some pretty impressive stuff during his time in the military – to talk about how they’re giving back via a non-profit called SOC-F.